With about three weeks to the Independent National Electoral Commission’s June 3 deadline for presidential primaries, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are still mum and keeping Nigerians in suspense over which zone will fly their presidential flags in the 2023 general elections.
The governing APC slated its primaries for May 30/31 in Abuja while the PDP on the other hand holds its presidential convention May 28/29.
The parties’ indecision has fuelled speculations that it might be an open game among all the presidential aspirants.
The seeming stalemate has continued to generate reactions from both the northern and southern flanks on what’s likely to be the consequence of the ‘inaction’ on zoning by the two political parties.
The two parties have communicated the schedule of their primaries and congresses to the INEC, just as the commission recently reminded them of the June 4 deadline which it said was sacrosanct.
APC
The indecision by the governing APC over zoning has obviously left the political game open to all presidential aspirants from the North, South-south, South-west and South-east.
The APC had fixed May 30/31 as the proposed date for its presidential primary election and also proposed May 23 for the governorship primary.
The party, in a letter, addressed to Professor Mahmood Yakubu, chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), dated April 6, notified the election body of its dates and schedule of its primaries for the nomination of candidates for the 2023 elections.
As at the last count, not less than 27 aspirants have indicated their interest to succeed Buhari using the APC platform.
Before now, it was purely a southern affair until recently when some northerners, including Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar and former Zamfara state Governor Ahmed Yerima joined the fray, while Senate President Ahmad Ibrahim Lawan is being rumoured to also declare his bid for the top job.
Among those in the race are Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Kogi state Governor Yahaya Bello, Ekiti state Governor Kayode Fayemi, former Ogun state Governor Ibikunle Amosun, former Imo state Governor Rochas Okorocha and recently a former minister and current President African Development Bank(ADB) Dr Adeshina Akinwumi among others.
The party extended the deadline of purchasing nomination of forms to May 10 from its earlier date of May 6 when it was expected to have ended.
…Power shift against 1999 Constitution – APC presidential aspirant
But when asked to respond to the agitations for zoning, an APC presidential aspirant, Dr. Abubakar Alkali, warned that the ruling party may have waved a goodbye to the presidency in the 2023 elections if it fields a presidential candidate from the South against an opposition PDP presidential candidate from the North.
Alkali said power shift can only happen during a military to civilian transition where a military government can use extra-constitutional means to stop candidates from other regions from contesting the elections as they did in 1998.
“Power shift is a clear breach of section 131 of the 1999 constitution (as altered) and as such, any candidates from any region ostracised from contesting the 2023 Presidential elections can choose to go to court to challenge their exclusion. This presents a glaring legal lacuna which can only be resolved through an amendment of the relevant sections of the constitution.
“If the constitution says all eligible Nigerians should be allowed to contest the Presidential elections, why will candidates from a particular section of the country be excluded?
“A political party is at liberty to zone its presidential ticket to any region, but power swing cannot be stamped as a national policy based on section 131 of the 1999 constitution. By the way, zoning by political parties is in order and in the spirit of political strategies to ensure victory in the election.”
The Adamawa born presidential aspirant who said the stakes were too high for Nigeria to stagnate its future on the altar of rotational presidency, added that “what is required is to open the political landscape and source for passionate Nigerians with the right mentality, knowledge, passion and patriotism to take this otherwise great nation to the top echelon in the comity of nations.
“Power shift could potentially lead to very serious breaches of Nigeria’s constitution and sustenance of the rule of law in Nigeria. It has the potentials to cause very serious risk to Nigeria’s internal security and could potentially lead to anarchy going forward. Power shift is at best, a model being used by desperate politicians to achieve personal interest. It is not in the national interest.
“The way to go is to abide by what the constitution says: allow every eligible Nigerian to contest the elections in accordance with section 131 (a-d) of the 1999 constitution (as altered).”
APC spokesman
Speaking on the telephone to one of our correspondents Sunday, APC National Publicity Secretary, Barrister Felix Morka, said there was no timeline on when decision would be taken on the issue of zoning.
When reminded that the party had 21 days left to conduct presidential primary election, the APC spokesman said the party leadership would meet at the appropriate time and take a decision.
Morka said: “There is no timeline to discuss the issue of zoning but the party leadership will actually meet and discuss it and take decision at the appropriate time.”
PDP
In a related development, with 19 days to the PDP National Convention to elect the party’s presidential candidate, the party is yet to unveil its position on zoning.
At the height of the agitation among PDP stakeholders, the National Executive Committee (NEC) swiftly inaugurated a 37-man zoning committee led by Benue state Governor Samuel Ortom on the 24th of March, 2022, to recommend to the party whether zoning would help it return to power at the centre in 2023 or not, and which part of the country should the presidential ticket be zoned to.
Though the committee, after three consecutive meetings, submitted its report to the Senator Iyorchia Ayu-led NWC, over three weeks after, the party still keeps mum on zoning.
And ahead of the party’s National Caucus and 96th edition of the National Executive Committee (NEC) meetings hold Wednesday (May 11, 2022), Blueprint’s investigation revealed that zoning no longer appears to be a major hurdle before the party.
More the any other, the meetings, it was gathered, would focus mostly on making a success of the forthcoming national convention and not zoning.
The two meetings will according to a reliable source set up committees for its May 28 National Convention, decide on the venue, budget for the convention and financial statement, especially the amount generated from sales of forms.
The source said: “For a while, if you look at the situation, you will understand that the party has successfully downplayed zoning. Though it will still come up in the NEC meeting, considering the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) timetable and other issues before the party and aspirants, it will no longer be as hot as many think it will be.”
Producing acceptable candidate our concern – PDP
Speaking to Blueprint on the telephone, the PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Ibrahim Abdullahi, said for now, the party was more concerned with producing a presidential candidate that would salvage Nigeria from hopelessness, not zoning.
He said: “Well, there is no way the party will be disturbed about that, zoning is not a constitutional issue, it is an agreement that was informed by the necessity of that time and a diplomatic way of taking everyone along.
“The party can choose its presidential candidate from anywhere at any point in time. This candidate could come from the north or the south; we are not so bothered about where the candidate will come from.
“We are doing zoning to ensure that everyone in the party and from every region in the country is taking along in the scheme of things. So it is not sacrosanct.
“The party is not so bothered about where the presidential candidate comes from. What is paramount to us is to produce a candidate that has the capacity not only to win the election but one that will govern Nigeria well and deliver the dividends of democracy, a candidate that will salvage Nigeria from the apparent hopelessness that has befallen the nation. This is uppermost in the concerns of the PDP.”
Aspirants in negotiation
Meanwhile, our checks revealed that there were grand moves by aspirants from the north to queue behind one of their own who will eventually contest against an aspirant from the south for the PDP presidential ticket.
Our source said” many of the aspirants are already negotiating for other positions.”
No queuing behind northern candidate – Clark
Taking strong exceptions to any attempt to go against zoning, a leading voice for a Southern presidency in 2023, former Federal Commissioner for Information in the Yakubu Gowon Military regime and Ijaw National Leader, Chief Edwin Clark, warned against another northern presidency after Buhari.
Clark said the matter was discussed at the 2014 national confab, insisting “rotation is the only vehicle of unity in Nigeria and it was decided at that conference there should be power shift, there should be rotation among the various ethnic groups or the various parts of this country if we are to have unity in this country.
“When El-Rufai said sometimes ago that 19 governors met with Mr President, Vice President that all the positions held by the northerners should be moved to South and vice versa.
“So we thought that the zoning has been done. So the South will produce the next president. Now that no southerner contested any position in the party which was zoned to the north and because the chairmanship was zoned to North central, Abdullahi Adamu took over. Look at the way they are now moving in.
“Then we are moving nowhere! No southerner will support a candidate from the North. We can’t live as second class citizens, where your right of franchise is taken over by someone who feels that it is his birth right to rule.”
‘Setting stage for chaos’
Weighing in on the controversy, a political analyst and former National Chairman of the National Democratic Party (NDP), Chudi Chukwuani, told Blueprint that the two major political parties are setting the stage for chaos by downplaying zoning.
“The PDP and APC are setting the stage for maximum confusion and chaos,” he said.
He said: “One would have thought that the PDP would have learnt lessons from their past indiscretions. Recall that in the build-up to the 2011 and 2015 elections, PDP was in power.
“In 2011, the clamour within the party was that zone to the north to enable the north complete the tenure of late President Yar’adua, but greed and sweetness of power never allowed the then PDP leadership to take an informed decision. And that led to the resistance that ex-President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan should continue.
“In 2015, there was also a higher clamour that PDP should zone to the north, because the north, yet again, the PDP zoned to the south and of course, Jonathan lost. North galvanised and stood behind President Muhammadu Buhari emerged.”
The political analyst also added that “in the APC, they created this illusion that the Presidency will go to the south, but they have thrown the floodgate open and aspirants from the north are rushing to purchase forms. So, this has also put whatever zoning between north and south APC claims into jeopardy.
“Instead of the PDP to use the opportunity to correct all the mistakes they made in 2011 and 2015, the party is not decisive. Now, the party members and aspirants are divided over zoning because the party’s leadership is not straightforward.
“The way the PDP is going about the zoning their chances are extremely limited. This is largely because the seed of disunity is already on the ground,” he added.