Contrary to some other polls, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research has predicted defeat for Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party for the 2023 general elections.
In a report, the firm, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating organisation, listed some factors that will work against Obi in the 2023 presidential election.
Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research predicts Peter Obi will lose the 2023 presidential election.
1. Peter Obi lacks support in the Muslim North
According to the report, Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra state in the southeast, lacks the support of the Muslim north. The report said Obi would lose because the majority of the voters are located in the north, adding that the region also usually records higher turn-out during elections than other parts of the country.
2. Labour Party lacks structure
The report also noted that the Labour Party, the party on whose platform Obi is contesting, does not have a structure and has no “candidates for most of the positions for state Assemblies, House of Representatives, Senate and governorship” that can deliver above other contenders.
3. 25 per cent of votes requirement
According to the 1999 Constitution, for a presidential candidate to be declared winner, he/she must score the highest number of votes and secure 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 states of the federation. With the Labour Party’s lack of structure, Fitch said this feat would be difficult for Obi to achieve.
4. Being a southern Christian
Fitch said the electorate in the north (the region with higher voter turn-outs) historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region.
As a Christian from the south (Anambra State), Obi will struggle to get the massive votes required to win in the northern region.
5. Skewed poll results
The firm also said some polls that predicted that Obi would emerge president are skewed. Citing a 2020 World Bank report, Fitch said only 36 per cent of Nigerians use the internet, where Obi has huge traction. “Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online,” it reads. “Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi,” the report stated.
Fitch added that even the polls that predicted victory for Obi also suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.
Meanwhile, Fitch tipped the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, to win the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria. The firm, however, added that Tinubu’s victory would trigger social instability and protests because of his party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.
“We maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC,” the report said.